The world’s most important oil artery is currently a ghost town, and frankly, nobody wants to be the one to turn the lights back on. For three weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to major tanker traffic following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that kicked off on February 28. Now, President Trump is finding out that "America First" doesn’t always mean the world follows second.
If you’re wondering why gas prices just jumped or why your favorite stocks are twitching, look at the 21-mile-wide gap between Iran and Oman. About 20% of the world's energy flows through here. Trump’s social media posts have been blunt: he wants the countries that actually use the oil—China, Japan, South Korea, and the UK—to send their own warships to patrol it. His pitch? "The Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT!"
The problem is, the world’s reaction has been a resounding "not our war."
The Burden Sharing Friction
The core of the issue isn't that countries don't care about the oil. They’re terrified of the price hitting $150 a barrel. The real friction is who takes the risk. Trump’s administration argues that since most of the oil isn't headed for American shores, the US shouldn't be the world's unpaid security guard. It’s a classic burden-sharing argument that we’ve seen with NATO, but now it’s playing out in a live combat zone.
Japan is in a particularly tight spot. They get 95% of their oil from the Middle East. Yet, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi basically told the White House "no" this week. Japan’s constitution makes sending warships into an active conflict zone a legal nightmare. They’re sticking to the sidelines, even as their economy bleeds from energy costs. Australia and the UK have been slightly more diplomatic but just as hesitant. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been clear: the UK won't be drawn into a wider war.
Who is actually at the table
While the public statements sound like a standoff, there’s a lot of "coalition of the willing" talk behind closed doors. Here is the current state of play for the major players:
- Japan: Heavily reliant on the oil but paralyzed by constitutional limits.
- South Korea: Reviewing options but worried about their own relationship with Tehran.
- The EU: Talking about expanding "Operation Aspides," their existing naval mission, but they’re moving at the speed of bureaucracy.
- China: They get 90% of their oil through the strait, but they aren’t exactly eager to jump into a US-led military operation.
Why the Blockade is Different This Time
In past years, "closing the strait" was a hollow threat Iran used for leverage. This time, it’s a reality. Since early March, drone and missile threats have made it a no-go zone for tankers. Lloyd’s List estimates that even with naval escorts, we’d only get about 10% of the lost volume back. That’s a drop in the bucket.
The stakes are higher because it isn't just about oil. It’s about fertilizer. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas pointed out that a lack of fertilizer this year means food deprivation next year. We aren't just looking at a gas crisis; we’re looking at a global supply chain collapse that hits everything from your dinner table to the cost of shipping a package.
The Strategy of Decapitation
Trump’s rhetoric suggests he thinks the job is almost done. He’s claimed Iran’s missile production has been "functionally defeated." But the reality on the water says otherwise. Iranian commanders are still vowing to set ships ablaze if they try to pass. This disconnect between the White House's "mission accomplished" tone and the actual danger in the water is exactly why allies are hesitant. They don't want to send their sailors into a trap.
You’re seeing a shift in how the US handles these crises. Instead of the US Fifth Fleet just taking charge, the administration is using the crisis as a lever to force other nations to build their own blue-water navies and security footprints. It's a high-stakes gamble. If the allies blink, the strait stays closed, and the global economy takes a hit that could make the 2008 crash look like a minor dip.
What Happens if Nobody Moves
If the standoff continues for another four weeks, Barclays predicts Brent crude will average $100 for the year. That's a conservative estimate. If you're an investor, you've got to watch the "Operation Aspides" meetings in Brussels. That’s where the real movement—or lack thereof—will happen.
The US is also weighing a suspension of the Jones Act to ease vessel shortages. This tells you they’re preparing for a long-term disruption. They aren't expecting the strait to open tomorrow.
Don't wait for the headlines to tell you the crisis is over. Watch the tanker tracking data. Until you see more than five ships a night making the crossing, the "Not Our War" sentiment is winning.
To stay ahead of the curve, you should:
- Monitor the EU Foreign Affairs Council updates on Operation Aspides; their decision to expand or stay put is the real signal of allied unity.
- Track the Brent Crude price floors—if it stays above $100 despite strategic reserve releases, the market is betting on a prolonged closure.
- Watch the Jones Act status in the US; a suspension is a "break glass in case of emergency" move for domestic energy stability.
